Four Clásicos

The first of four clásicos between Barcelona and Real Madrid ended with the score I expected, but much in the game went very differently than I anticipated, largely because of Pepe's role in the midfield. Although Barça controlled possession, it was fairly meaningless since it did not produce the scoring opportunities they needed. Pepe neutralized Messi and Iniesta and, frequently Madrid advanced, it was because of a ball won by Pepe. I hate the guy, but he was very effective for Madrid. Despite the draw, Barça has more glaring weaknesses than Madrid, the most notable of which is the ineffectiveness of David Villa in front of goal. Although he was involved in some scoring opportunities, he blew his biggest chance when he received a beautiful ball from Xavi in extra time and could have (should have) won the game.

For Barça, these are the only ways they can surprise Madrid: with improved performances from key players (Villa and Iniesta) and a more attacking mindset. Of course, a game always brings unexpected events, but as Madrid prepare for the game, they know what they will get from Barça. Barça, on the other hand, have much more to worry about from Madrid. Madrid's depth and flexibility in its roster presents several ways that it can beat Barça. This depth and flexibility are two areas of Madrid's superiority that Barça can only overcome if its superior skill is leavened with an attacking mindset. In addition, Madrid's depth is a useful one in that it gives them players who can fill different roles and makes them far less predictable than Barça, which is very predictable, but still difficult to defeat.

Still, Madrid's depth and flexibility is enhanced by its overall team speed. Madrid is very fast, much faster than Barça, and toward the end of Saturday's game that speed and agression was on display. In the Copa del Rey final, Madrid must do more than wait and counter; they must use their speed to their advantage in order to win. I expect Madrid will be able to do the latter more easily than Barça will be able to raise its game. Madrid must feel confident following their ability to strain Barça's defense in the last minutes of Saturday's game with only ten players. In addition, Barça will have José Pinto in goal, and it is honorable of Guardiola to retain him as the Copa keeper, but it will spell trouble for Barça if they face an attacking Madrid.

I expect Madrid will will 4-2. Actually, I expect a blowout, but my love for Barça and hatred for Madrid prevent me from writing the score I fear may result. Nevertheless, this cup will be Madrid's. My greater fear is that once Madrid realizes what it is capable of against Barça, Barça will not be able to respond adequately in the Champions League matches to come.