Four Clásicos

The first of four clásicos between Barcelona and Real Madrid ended with the score I expected, but much in the game went very differently than I anticipated, largely because of Pepe's role in the midfield. Although Barça controlled possession, it was fairly meaningless since it did not produce the scoring opportunities they needed. Pepe neutralized Messi and Iniesta and, frequently Madrid advanced, it was because of a ball won by Pepe. I hate the guy, but he was very effective for Madrid. Despite the draw, Barça has more glaring weaknesses than Madrid, the most notable of which is the ineffectiveness of David Villa in front of goal. Although he was involved in some scoring opportunities, he blew his biggest chance when he received a beautiful ball from Xavi in extra time and could have (should have) won the game.

For Barça, these are the only ways they can surprise Madrid: with improved performances from key players (Villa and Iniesta) and a more attacking mindset. Of course, a game always brings unexpected events, but as Madrid prepare for the game, they know what they will get from Barça. Barça, on the other hand, have much more to worry about from Madrid. Madrid's depth and flexibility in its roster presents several ways that it can beat Barça. This depth and flexibility are two areas of Madrid's superiority that Barça can only overcome if its superior skill is leavened with an attacking mindset. In addition, Madrid's depth is a useful one in that it gives them players who can fill different roles and makes them far less predictable than Barça, which is very predictable, but still difficult to defeat.

Still, Madrid's depth and flexibility is enhanced by its overall team speed. Madrid is very fast, much faster than Barça, and toward the end of Saturday's game that speed and agression was on display. In the Copa del Rey final, Madrid must do more than wait and counter; they must use their speed to their advantage in order to win. I expect Madrid will be able to do the latter more easily than Barça will be able to raise its game. Madrid must feel confident following their ability to strain Barça's defense in the last minutes of Saturday's game with only ten players. In addition, Barça will have José Pinto in goal, and it is honorable of Guardiola to retain him as the Copa keeper, but it will spell trouble for Barça if they face an attacking Madrid.

I expect Madrid will will 4-2. Actually, I expect a blowout, but my love for Barça and hatred for Madrid prevent me from writing the score I fear may result. Nevertheless, this cup will be Madrid's. My greater fear is that once Madrid realizes what it is capable of against Barça, Barça will not be able to respond adequately in the Champions League matches to come.

Ronaldo Transfer in Perspective

As you can see from my extensive comments below, I think Real Madrid will likely benefit from acquiring Cristiano Ronaldo. Nevertheless, to think through the ramifications of his transfer, we need some analysis of Ronaldo's strengths and liabilities. First, when Zidane joined Madrid from Juventus in 2001, he was 29 years old. Kaka recently turned 27, David Villa will be 28 in December, and Ribéry is 26. Ronaldo is only 24 years old, and may not yet be in his prime. He has already accomplished more than any of these players at a comparable age, although he was fortunate to play for the greatest club coach of the last twenty-five years. Read Gabriele Marcotti's analysis on SI.com of Ronaldo to understand why, despite his considerable liabilities, it is no exaggeration to place Ronaldo with Zidane, Ronaldo of Brazil, and Ronaldinho as the undisputed greats of an era (although eras seem to be getting shorter and shorter). Martin Rogers of Yahoo! Sports argues the pressure he will face in Madrid may undermine his success. From the inside, recently departed Fabio Cannovaro believes Madrid has a long way to go before they become a good team. At Goal.com, Sulmaan Ahmad foresees difficulties between Ronaldo and the leaders of the lockerroom, Guti and Raúl. Over the last couple of years, I have sensed some similarities in attitude and persona between Ronaldo and Alex Rodriguez, and Ahmad's argument brings to mind some of the chemistry issues that have plagued the Yankees in recent years. As much as I despise Real Madrid, I think such an outcome would be a disaster for the sport.

One gap that I couldn't fill in the commentary is there doesn't seem to be much discussion in soccer of a financial approach to assessing a player's value, much as has taken over sports in the U.S. In baseball, football, and (to a lesser extent) basketball, front offices calculate very carefully a player's financial value in terms of his statistical productivity, and it becomes part of the discussion among sportswriters. I only read English and French, and can usually make out the headlines of the Spanish articles even if I can't quite get the details right, and I have not seen any sort of commentary that judges Ronaldo's financial worth. The closest I have seen is whether the team can earn back his income through marketing opportunities; no discussion of his longevity, his health, his productivity, his contribution to winning, and so on. For a good example of this kind of discussion with an NBA player, see this article from The New York Times.


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/gabriele_marcotti/12/03/cristiano.ronaldo/index.html

http://sports.yahoo.com/sow/news;_ylt=AsEOuTGkZdu22YrxXISzf3Emw7YF?slug=ro-ronaldo061109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

http://www.worldsoccer.com/news/Real_Madrid_face_problems__Cannavaro_news_284468.html

http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/85/england/2009/06/11/1319242/cristiano-ronaldo-the-best-player-but-worst-ego-for-madrid

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html

Barça, Barça, Barça

I have been a fan of Futbol Club Barcelona since the summer of 1992. That was the year the Summer Olympics were held in Barcelona, and in doing some reading on the history of the city and the region of Catalonia, I became aware of its main soccer team and have been a fan ever since.

From my reading, I learned that Catalonia and Barcelona have a spirit of independence, artistic freedom, democracy, and equality, much of it tied to a respect for workers' rights. The first book I read about the region was Orwell's Homage to Catalonia, which describes his experiences during the Spanish Civil War. I then read other books about the history and culture of the region, and learned that much of its distinction comes from a desire to preserve its language, Catalan. This respect for democracy and equality contrasted starkly with a Castilian culture that tolerated monarchs and dictators. (Of course, this puts things far too simply, but it is broadly accurate.)

So, upon learning that this beautiful Olympic city had a soccer team that embodied ideals and values I shared, I decided to root for it. Certainly, it was easier to call FC Barcelona "my team" after learning that it was coached by one of my boyhood idols (Johann Cruyff), had just won what was then called the European Cup (now known as the Champions League), and had finished in first place for two years in a row. I also learned that summer to hate Real Madrid, which in my reading seemed to embody the ideals of Franco's dictatorship. This is much too simplistic, as even Madrid players were jailed by Franco in the 1930s, but it certainly makes it easier to hate them. (I did have a brief tolerance for Madrid when it acquired Zinedine Zidane, who is probably my favorite player of the last ten years. It helped that Barça was terrible during his first years in Madrid.)

Over the last fifteen years, Barça has certainly had its dry spells, but with the money the club now earns, and the players it has, the blaugrana (blue and red) faithful expect success, which makes this year triple championship extraordinarily satisfying. Madrid is once again chasing Barcelona, and they have audaciously financed new hopes to unseat us from the top. Despite the football prowess of Cristiano Ronaldo, Kakà, David Villa, Franck Ribéry, and whomever else Florentino Pérez buys, I am not worried.

First, Barça is mulling several options to maintain a relentless attack and improve the defense. Although Barça has been lying low for now, it will make some important changes. Both Madrid and Barça will be stronger come the end of August.

Second, while the idea of another Galácticos era must be spellbinding for Madrid fans, keep in mind that the first galactic experiment didn't produce much bang for the buck. Pérez didn't really show the first time around that he knows how to build a team. Perhaps he has learned from his earlier mistakes, but he needs to make sure that he lets the coach do the coaching and have some say over the kind of players he needs. (Back in 2003, Pérez and Vicente del Bosque--the current coach of Spain's national team--could not agree on personnel matters. Pérez acquired Beckham purely for marketing reasons, and saved Barça from making that mistake. Ronaldinho was available; Barça picked him up, admittedly as a second choice. Pérez also let go of Eto'o and acquired Michael Owen, who contributed nothing. Ronaldinho and Eto'o helped Barça to win league titles the next two years as well as a Champions League.)

Third, Pellegrini (the new coach) was good at Villareal, but that's a city of 40,000 which, from what I've read, doesn't even show up on some maps of Spain. Nearly twice as many people will attend Madrid games as there are in all of Villareal. Will he be able to handle the international spotlight while managing some galaxy-sized egos in the Spanish capital?

Fourth, the huge drop off in quality between Kakà and Ronaldo and the rest of the team (with the exception of Robben) means Pellegrini will have to develop a cohesive philosophy in order to minimize the talent gap. Tinkering with the line up, formation, and tactics for no apparent reason will surely lead to failure. The other players must get a lot of attention from the coaching staff and have a clear understanding of their roles and the game plans. A large part of Barça's success comes from a consistent philosophy from youth soccer all the way up to the top, and we have a lot of homegrown players. When Barça runs in subs (and this was true under Rijkaard, too) they already know the philosophy.

Last, we have no idea how Madrid's new acquisitions will get along. Ronaldo is clearly a prima donna. What if he and Kakà don't develop chemistry right away, and Ronaldo gets impatient? What if Ronaldo and Raúl (or even Villa for the sake of argument) don't complement each other on the field? What if they don't respect the coach? Madrid's success will depend on these players' ability to set aside their egos to accomplish team goals, but the team is setting up a structure that demands that they be treated differently. Guardiola got Barça's players to buy into playing on different parts of the field, in different positions, in order to take advantage of situations, tendencies, and matchups. Will Ronaldo be so easily moved around as Messi, Henry, and Iniesta?

This is an incredible time for Real Madrid, and their future looks great. But, these changes give a Barça supporter no reason to panic. Madrid has acquired these players with a sense of desperation, and these new guys will face more pressure to succeed than they have anywhere else. (Well, Kakà has faced this pressure with Brazil's national team.) Madrid does not yet have a group of players who know how to play with each other (Barça does), they don't have a coach with a clearly defined philosophy for his team (Barça does), they do not have a coach who commands the respect of the team, fans, and media (Barça does), and Madrid does not yet have a strong enough group of players to complement its stars (Barça does). By the end of the season, Madrid may well have all of these qualities, but I'll have to see it before I believe it.

Do You Know Who Is Watching You?

Many of you love Facebook, and Facebook loves you, but maybe a little too much. Facebook keeps an archived copy of anything you put up, including photos and "wall" messages, so even if you take it down, Facebook still has it. Also, simply deactivating your account will not remove your profile. Instead, you must call a customer service center and tell them you want to delete your profile. Clearly, Facebook resorts to this twentieth-century technology only to provide an inconvenience to their twenty-first century customers. Through its Beacon program, Facebook also shares the web sites you visit with those in your social network. Although it now asks your permission to do so, not all users realize what they are asked to opt out of.

The other day, I mentioned Total (or Terrorism) Information Awareness (TIA), a federal program that Congress shut down in 2004, yet it lives on in various guises. TIA was a project of DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Programs Agency) and was made possible by the USA PATRIOT (Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism) Act of 2001. This act was supposed to "sunset" (i.e., end) after four years, but instead was reauthorized in March of 2006. This act generates a lot of debate between those who believe it is a necessary tool to keep us safe and others who believe it is not only ineffective at keeping us safe, but it also unfairly invades our privacy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/11/technology/11facebook.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/30/technology/30face.html

http://epic.org/privacy/profiling/tia/

http://nationaljournal.com/about/njweekly/stories/2006/0223nj1.htm

http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/patriotact/

http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0303/p01s03-uspo.html

Elephants and Donkeys

With the primary campaign season racing past us, there is a lot of information to sort out and a lot of spin to unwind.  If you are unfamiliar with the nominating process, CNN has clear and accurate explanations of how Republicans and Democrats choose their presidential nominees. A consistently confusing part of the process is the role of delegates--What are they?  Who are they?  How do they function differently for Democrats and Republicans?  This CNN site should clear things up for you.  It's helpful, too, to have a good clearinghouse of opinion, analysis, and data like Real Clear Politics.  If you're not sure what to believe, check out Fact Check, a project of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania that places sound bites, opinion polls, and statistics in their proper contexts.  

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney's withdrawal from the race may seem like a concession to John McCain, but it might be more important for McCain that Mike Huckabee stay in the race.  Nevertheless, Saturday's results (as well as this interview) suggest Huckabee isn't going to roll over for McCain.  On the Democratic side, pundits have identified Latino voters as the group that will decide the nominee, but these observers falsely assume this group will clearly side with one candidate.  In the Los Angeles Times, a young Latina voter shows how complicated things can be even within one family.   

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/path.presidency/

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

http://www.factcheck.org

http://www.newsweek.com/id/109591

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/long-live-huckabee/

http://www.alternet.org/election08/76201/

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/commentary/la-oe-munoz2feb02,0,1138667.story

Incandescence

Imagine if every room you stepped into was cast in the same light as your classrooms, or Wal-Mart?  In December, Congress set new energy-efficiency standards that, between 2012 and 2014, will phase out the incandescent light bulb.   In a recent essay, writer Ron Rosenbaum complains that such a change will destroy our capacity to see things as they really are.  But he also uses this development as an opportunity to sing praises to Thomas Edison's invention. Both a rant and a paean,  Rosenbaum's piece is a classic example of rear-guard thinking.  As you read the essay, notice his use of emotional, logical, and ethical appeals to make a persuasive case for the beauty of incandescent light and the ugliness of fluorescent light.  At stake for Rosenbaum is nothing less than our human capacity for happiness.  While Rosenbaum may be overreacting a bit (flourescent lighting does come in a range of colors), it is fun to read sentences like these:  "Fluorescents seem specially designed to drain life and beauty from the world. Don't kid yourself if you hope Hell is lit by fire. More likely fluorescents....Don't get me wrong, this is not a plea for Ye Olde Times, for gaslight and quill pens. It's just a plea not to take for granted the way we illuminate our world....A lamp fitted with an incandescent bulb and dim translucent shades casts a lovely, painterly glow on human faces, while the light of fluorescents recalls a meat locker."  

Cars, Cars, Cars

Cars are around us all the time, but unless we're riding in an uncomfortable one, we don't think much about them.  The coverage in the national daily papers of the North American International Auto Show in Detroit gives us a chance to reflect on our relationship with this changing piece of technology.  Part of the fun of reading about new vehicles comes from the great writing that is inspired by well-designed cars.  The best American writer on cars is Dan Neil, who writes the Rumble Seat column for the Los Angeles Times.  (Scroll down and click on the car reviews link.)  He reviews the full range of automobiles, from economy, family, and lifestyle cars to sports, luxury, and super-luxury cars.   Check out this snippet of Neil's writing.  About the meticulously restored 1963 Ferrari Lusso once owned by the late actor Steve McQueen, Neil wrote, "in the Moneterey [California] sunlight, the metallic paint ignites with a pale opalescent fire, shimmering in shades of honey and oxblood....Unlike a modern car that has no scent of machinery about it, the Lusso is delectably perfumed with the smell of leather, fuel and oil. The whiteface gauges are as bright as a Hollywood smile."